The Russian reassurance of its popularity among the Syrian people would be the trap in which the USA and Israel are trying to lead Russia in a USSR – Star Wars-style trap, Russia’s popularity among the Syrians is dwindling with the repeated mistakes it has done and its failure in presenting the connection between its base in Hmeimim and the Israeli repeated bombing of Syrian sites, the latest of which was the most brazen where the Israeli missiles flew from beside the Russian base and fell just to the north of it.
One cannot play political maneuvers with the Syrians, they would lend you a card once, twice, maybe thrice, if you fail to explain why you’re abusing them or even being abused while relying on the Syrian people’s trust, soon enough that trust will turn against you, and it’ll be very ugly. The following is a mere reflection of the talks in the Syrian communities, it’s becoming louder by the time, the Syrians deserve proper answers. The threat they faced and the unprecedented battles they fought against the world-sponsored terrorism for over a decade won’t be sold in exchange for cheap tactical gains here or there, it’s time for the Russians to explain or take a strong position, they are threatened as much as the Syrians are and it’s enough fighting the battle only in Syria while collecting the gains worldwide. Take into utmost consideration this friendly warning by the Syrian prominent author Naram Serjoon with the highest importance:
Is there any doubt that the greatest mistake made by the victors is their sense of reassurance of victory? Being reassured about the Church’s authority and prestige once implicated it in the sin of indulgence, assuming that the believers would not object to God’s authority granted to the church. However, this reassurance cost the Church a schism and catastrophic religious wars that killed millions of believers.
Reassurance of victory should not be a weapon in the hands of the enemy. The most powerful weapon in the hands of your enemy is to be assured. The hunter also strives to reassure the prey so that it forgets it until it surprises it from where it does not expect.
Even we, in the Axis of Resistance, were assured of our victory in Iraq over the Americans and the Israelis in a double blow. The reason for our victory was the reassurance of the American enemy that we would not dare to challenge them, and that the diplomacy of ‘Shock and Awe’ that crushed the Iraqis had shocked, terrified, and petrified us. They were surprised that we were not afraid, and they were surprised that we were fighting without any calculations. The reassurance of the Americans and the Israelis that we were afraid and confused by the fall of Baghdad (April 2003) and the fall of Beirut with the Hariri bombing (February 2005) was the reason for their defeat because they took it easy on the battle, which was the toughest battle the reassured Israelis and Americans fought with whom they thought was confused and afraid.
On the other hand, our confidence that we won a complete victory was a weakness in us and a lethal weapon in the hands of the enemy. Our reassurance that we were the resistance and that we were the only ones who challenged America and Israel and subjugated them made us think that the East has become loyal to us and that our criticism has become impossible. And that we obtained an instrument of indulgence from our opponents and critics in the Arab East, the hostility toward us by any politician, faction or movement in the region will not be justified and will not succeed. We are the victors, and we are the ones who obtained the indulgence instrument with the blood and gunpowder with which we fought.
While we were reassured, the enemy takes our reassurance as a penetration point and sneaks up on us while we are heedless and spreads clever doctrinal and sectarian propaganda that started with the legend of the ‘Shiite Crescent’ that was launched by the son of the Jordanian ‘spy’ king; and Al-Jazeera marketed it carefully and shrewdly, and pushed us to accept the relationship with Turkey to push away the charge of a Shiite Crescent from us. We fell into the trap of reassurance of the thief and vile liar Erdogan, who assured us that he is coming to join the resistance axis… and this reassurance to him was a reason for us to open our borders to him.
And so on, until the victory we were assured of turned into a trap in the hands of the Americans and the Israelis. Our charge became ready and we could no longer defend ourselves. And our glories and victories fell in a few days under the barrage of media bombardment in the religious sectarian and Brotherhood stations, which multiplied like mushrooms in Turkey, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and the Gulf states. These satellite channels and stations swallowed all the news of the Syrian victory over the Americans and the divine victory of Hezb Allah, and blew news of sectarianism, extremism, and religiosity.
Suddenly the Arab Spring and the Syrian revolution came out, our victories died, and the Syrian army, which was the pride of Arab peoples, became the army that kills, burns, strangles, and rapes Syrians. President Bashar al-Assad and Sayyed Nasrallah became the killers of Sunnis and children and not the two leaders who ripped apart the US and Israeli army and whose pictures were hung in Arab homes and raised in the heart of Al-Azhar (Egypt’s Grand Mufti and Religious Center). The culture of sects, extremism, and brutality spread, no one remembers anymore that Assad and Nasrallah are the two who made the most important victory for Muslims, Arabs, and the entire East. This reassurance was the most important reason for the success of the US-Israel project in igniting the region and igniting Syria and destroying victory.
Today, it seems that the Russians are the ones who have entered the phase of reassurance of the victory they achieved over the Americans in Syria. There is no doubt that it was the Russians’ entry into the Syrian war that quickly turned the situation around. In coordination with the Syrian and Iranian armies and Hezb Allah, it managed to inflict a humiliating defeat on the Islamist armies of America, its theories, and strategies. The United States, which was astonished by the unexpected Russian movement, was confused after it was reassured that Russia had become cold in politics and war. America retreated back to leave the arena to the Russians.
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There is no doubt that this battle earned Russia a great reputation and brought it back to it the sense of feeling of great power. It tasted the taste of the Soviet Union which it lost, and even put her feet in the warm water, the dream of all the tsars of Russia. But the Russians should be aware of the trap of reassurance in which they have placed themselves because the most important factor in their victory in Syria was the desire of the Syrian people and their welcome for their arrival and their staying among us. The strength of the Hmeimim base is due to the fact that it is surrounded by the popular welcome and a pro-Russian incubator which preserves the favor for it in supporting the Syrian people.
But will the Americans let the Russians enjoy this victory, achievement, and positioning, or are they looking to make the Russians feel more reassured and that their presence in Syria is immutable as if participating with the Syrians in the war on terrorism is an everlasting instrument of indulgence for Russia?
But the Americans and the Israelis at the same time are working to incite the Syrians as a people, individuals, and groups against Russia through the war of social media platforms and spreading many rumors about the Russian role in sabotaging the Syrian economy or controlling Syrian production and Syrian wealth such as the gas in the sea, Palmyra and the oil fields in Qalamoun.
But the most important blow to the Russian presence in Syria is the bullying of Israel and its repeated bombing of Syria with the presence of Russian forces. Many Syrians agree that this bombing is very coordinated with Moscow, and Israel does not dare to bomb without informing Moscow; it is Moscow that gives the green light to Israel.
It became very difficult for the Syrians to be convinced that Russia is blind and that it does not see the Israeli planes that take off towards Syria and strike near Russia’s bases and directly under its nose. Whether the targets are Syrian, of Hezb Allah, or Iranian, the bombing is bombing on Syrian territory. It constitutes a great insult to the Syrians, who see that they have won a global war, but they do not respond to Israel, which was shaken by the response of Gaza’s missiles and called for help from the world.
There are many who have become convinced that Syria is very capable of responding to Israel, but Russia prefers to be patient and advises against responding, and maybe imposing non-response due to considerations of its own and related to its agreements with the Americans and Israel regarding calm in the Middle East.
But the Israelis and the Americans are intensively active in social media networks inciting the Syrians, especially the residents of coastal cities, against the Russian presence. This incitement and pushing the people’s anger towards Russia, if successful, will turn the feelings and moods of the Syrians against the Russians. It has become clear from the recent reactions that a mood of non-welcomeness to Russia has begun to take shape in popular circles. Therefore, the most important source of reassurance for the Hmeimim base will evaporate, and that is the popular embrace and welcome. And if the Israelis continued the game of incitement and directing insults through bombing without Russian or Syrian deterrence, the Russian soldiers at the base will turn into prisoners at the base because they will not roam freely in the streets of Syrian cities and will find people throwing stones at them after people were racing to shake hands with them. People will forget Russia, which fought with them, shed blood with them, and withstood with them in the face of the toughest diplomatic, global and military war that almost took it into a world war.
Americans are adept at changing people’s moods and manipulating them, and they are good at the game of time. They did it in southern Iraq, which mood was aligned with Iran. Gradually, the Americans succeeded when they successively turned the mood of the Iraqi Shiites against Iran through rumors, elaborate work in social media networks, and the relations of the humongous American embassy with large Iraqi sectors. And the Americans managed to split the Shiites into two camps that will soon struggle. And the Americans did it cleverly in the Iraqi Sunni areas that were loyal to President Saddam Hussein and the Baathist ideology, but incitement and manipulation of people’s feelings turned the Iraqi Baathists and Sunni officers into merciless fighters in ISIS; they moved from fighting the Americans, adopting the slogans of the Baath, to fighting the Iraqi Shiites under the auspices and protection of the Americans and their military and logistical support.
We cannot claim that we know how the Russians think, nor the extent of the pressures they are subjected to in Ukraine, Belarus, and the Russian interior. We do not really know if their patience and our patience was a tactic that hides surprises in our favor. But my sincere advice to the Russian friends who fought with us, stood with us, and won our hearts: Do not be assured of any American agreement with you or any Israeli promises.
By bombing Syrian territory, the Israelis are not achieving any worthy military goal. But they bomb the trust between Russia and the Syrian people and destroy the popular love for Russia among the Syrians. They help the perceptions that spread that Russia is sharing Syria with the Americans and that it is satisfied with the bombing of the Syrian people or does not accept it to respond in order to preserve its interests.
And Israel, with every bombardment, is bombing the pegs of the Hmeimim base that connects it with the hearts of Syrians on Syrian soil, that is the Syrian popular welcome and absolute confidence in the Russians. And remember that the Americans, the Israelis, and the Turks are also tampering with your security in Ukraine. All our enemies are working against you in Ukraine, and they are working to demolish what you have achieved in Syria.
They are waiting for the emergence of a popular public opinion in Syria opposing your presence, and it has begun to take shape, and then it is sufficient to launch a fabricated incident, such as the story of the children’s nails in Daraa, for people to take up arms and fight the Russian soldiers in Hmeimim, and the first to provide them with weapons will be the American bases on Syrian soil. Then no Syrian government will be able to control the unrestrained feelings. You will not be able to lighten the Syrian memory and remind the people of what the Russian friends did. People’s memory is short and would be erased by moments of anger. Evidence abounds.
The contentment of the Russians will be the American trap they will fall into. Like the Star Wars trap and the illusion of the reflecting mirrors in space. The difference is that the victory of Syria is the most important star war that resurgent Russia has won from among the ruins of the Marxist empire. The stars of Russia should not fall in the Syrian war, in an Israeli-American trap.