What the Donbas and Syria could teach about Russia’s political leadership
Stefan H. Heuer
23-12-2024
Personal note:
After eight years, I am once again writing an article dealing with Syria and geopolitics. What makes a German of retirement age want to deal with a distant country? Well, foreign and security policy was a field of interest during my university studies.
With NATO’s illegal war of aggression on Yugoslavia and subsequently, with the West’s imperialist wars in the Orient, my consciousness, once carefully indoctrinated by naivety and media consumption, gained the first effective cracks.
In 2011, NATO was just bombing ‘democracy and liberty’ into Libya, I became acquainted with a Syrian lady from Aleppo who, with patience, was able to finally bring down the remains of my wall of NATO-fuelled ignorance. Since then, I have been working on the topic of Syria. In several articles, I have dealt with my country’s dirty role against Syria – as much as it is possible using public sources. In 2016 I felt vindicated by the article ‘Germany and the UN against Syria’ by Thierry Meyyan, which reveals the truly sordid details of the German government’s collaboration with the war criminals from Washington. The question of ‘why’ remains. Well, perhaps it is the realisation of the true nature of the ‘German’ foreign policy steered by the USA – and the desperate indignation it has sparked to me.
After the fall of Damascus
‘Is Putin capable of strategic thinking?’ asks Paul Craig Roberts in his article of 19 December 2024.
I would like to take up this question and discuss it against the backdrop of events in Syria and the Donbas.
After Putin’s withdrawal from the Syria mission and the subsequent fall of this culturally diverse nation into the hands of the enemies of humanity, doubts about Putin’s strategic ability seem to be appropriate. After all, Putin has sacrificed Russia’s only ally in Arabia – and indeed its most loyal ally. The victors in Syria are Russia’s enemies. The signal to the remaining allies and the community of nations united in BRICS could therefore be something like this: Take what you can from Russia, but don’t trust the Kremlin an inch!
Is this development in Russia’s favour? Regarding the accelerating escalation of the international situation (and please don’t give me any more nonsense about ‘saviour Trump’!), the current situation seems to be unfavourable for Russia and its allies. In fact, the brutal and successful Israeli-Turkish charade has completely reversed the situation, and today the losers are those who yesterday seemed to be marching on the road to victory. Erdogan and Netanyahu are the shining winners, Syria and Putin are the losers with their pants down.
Of course, I am unable to assess whether the man in the Kremlin is actually a Western agent who is ‘dismembering Russia’ in the service of the American pirates, as one blogger wrote in early 2024. Doubts about Putin’s strategic abilities, but above all about his determination, have nevertheless been voiced in Russia for years. Sometimes this made the holder of this opinion taking a state-financed holiday, like Igor Girkin (4 years in prison).
Let us keep in mind that Putin allowed himself to be stalled for eight years when he sat idle, watching from the high battlements of the Kremlin as the Ukrainian army slaughtered Russians (!) in the Donbas, without doing more than protesting and begging his enemies to stop. It is claimed that in 2014, when the western-orchestrated coup in Kiev built the foundations for the massacre in Odesa and the genocide in Donbas, the Russian army was not yet at the same combat-related technological level as it is today. This is the argument: Russia still needed time (this time was bought with the blood of around 15,000 people in the Donbas who were slaughtered by Ukraine). However, the objection here is that in 2014 the Ukrainian army was not at the level that NATO considers appropriate for a war with Russia. In contrast to Russia, however, the Ukrainians used the time chance not only to arm themselves but to continue committing acts of genocide against Russians.
The people of Donbas, however, fought back. After all, in 2015, the German Chancellor Merkel persuaded Putin to agree to an arrangement called Minsk, allegedly to stop the bloodshed. The real goal, however, was to save the Ukrainian army from a defeat in the Donbas. This Ukrainian army at this time was already being prepared for war against Russia in Grafenwoehr in Bavaria. Without Minsk, the Donbas-militia of Igor Girkin (‘Strelkov’) would have caused the Ukrainian army a decisive defeat. What a setback that would have been for the West’s plans! It was not NATO’s agent Merkel who stabbed Russia’s Donbas in the back and stole the victory won with blood from its militia – it was Putin.
At the beginning of the 2000s, there had already been a coup in Kiev, the so-called ‘Orange Revolution’ (Yuschenko / Timoshenko), had been staged in order to pull Ukraine towards the West and establish it as a front against Russia. In 2008, it was invited to apply for membership in NATO. The same thing happened in Georgia under Saakashvili, who even attacked Russian troops in the Caucasus.
Had Putin forgotten Minsk? In 2022, Mrs Merkel openly admitted the tactic of stalling Putin with the Minsk agreements to give Ukraine time to prepare for war. Hollande and Cameron eagerly confirmed her statement. Putin laments having been cheated by Merkel with the Minsk agreements. It takes two to cheat.
In the third year of the war, the Russian leadership has now resorted to trumpeting the victorious capture of depopulated small settlements in the Donbas while American missiles are falling on Russia, Ukrainians are slaughtering civilians in Russia and Kiev is sending explosive greetings all the way to Kazan.
With Minsk serving NATO and Ukraine, Putin repeated it with the ‘Astana format’, the useless talk about Syria with Erdogan and Iran. Pardon, logically it should read: AGAINST Syria, because in Astana as in Minsk, the powers negotiated about people who were not even involved. What do you call that: Colonialism, Sykes-Picot 2.0?
Had Minsk already fallen out of Putin’s view when it was working in the best interests of Kiev’s sponsors? Has Putin, after Merkel’s public humiliation, finally pulled the ripcord on his appeasement towards NATO? Has he increased measures to secure the Donbas and Syria – and thus Russia’s own geostrategic interests, instead? No, on the contrary. There are still Ukrainian army units in the Donbas today.
On Syria, Putin agreed with Erdogan, the boss of Al Qaeda HTS, to preserve the CIA, MIT and Mossad jihadists in Idlib, a governorate in northwestern Syria that borders Turkey. Thanks to Putin’s agreements with Erdogan, Idlib became a de facto extraterritorial terrorist stronghold in Syria. Here, the gangs could be rebuilt, armed and trained, and the Turks diligently transported weapons and equipment to Syria in small-scale border traffic.
Here in Idlib, under the eyes of the Russians, Turkey created a quasi-state infrastructure and allowed head-choppers to mime government. The Russians and Turks carried out joint controls on the line of contact, keeping the Syrian Arab Army away from their baby, and ensuring that the constant attacks by the Idlib-based Jihadists on Aleppo could not be fought by the Syrian Arab Army. Logistically, the Syrian Arab Army had apparently been in a position to contain and eliminate this terror spawn right up to the end. But Putin / Erdogan did not want this, and Assad seems to have given in in the end. Until the end, brave Syria fought with one hand tied on its back, and often even with both, shackled by the Kremlin’s desire for reconciliation with the masters of the Jihadists. Hundreds of thousands of Syrians have paid the price with their lives since 2011. Also, Putin’s recent, utterly shameless recriminations against his former ally give me no reason to hope for a change in the Kremlin’s strategy. Fruitful lessons from the Syrian catastrophe authorised by Putin seem to be undesirable.
The price for Putin’s fatal Syria strategy is being paid by the survivors with occupation, a destroyed country, a collapsed economy, hyperinflation, impoverishment, hunger, terrorism against religious minorities as well as Syrians loyal to their nation, displacement and a gang of head-choppers in the service of the Western secret services acting as ‘government’. In case that is what you wanted, Mr. Putin, you were successful. Congratulations.
II And what next?
The result of Putin’s strategy is clear: In the Ukraine war, the bear is still dancing on Russian soil, a ‘demilitarisation and denazification’ of Ukraine, official guidelines of the ‘Special Military Operation’ (SMO), have yet not been achieved. Syria has fallen, with the worst consequences for the Syrian people, for Lebanon, for Palestine and Iran – and beyond that for the Central Asian region and the Caucasus. And perhaps ultimately for the whole of humanity.
Under the eyes of the whole world, the Palestinian people, legitimate holders of the land rights of the Holy Land, will be wiped out. Those whom Zion can not kill will be expelled, but where to? Lebanon will either be occupied and annexed by Israel or implode (and then be ‘pacified’ by Israeli and US bombs). In the end, there will be ‘Greater Israel’. If necessary, the evil empire will move its army of Zio-Wahhabi scum to other theatres of crisis in order to inflict further defeats on Russia and keep Russia in constant tension – just as the RAND memorandum of 2019 had described.
Did Mr Putin not know about Netanyahu’s plans for ‘Greater Israel’ and the ‘Greater Turan Project’ of the wanna-be Caliph Erdogan? Does Russia have neither an intelligence service nor reliable geostrategic analysts? Does Moscow not read the Israeli and Turkish memoranda? What do these people actually do all day?
The aim of the Russian campaign in Syria, which began in 2015, is said to have been the pre-emptive destruction of (Western-manufactured) terrorism in Syria itself. Not only has Putin not achieved this goal, but the exact opposite: terrorists are in Damascus, Turkey, and the US and Israel have taken over Syria. This is undoubtedly the most important of all Turkish victories over the old enemy.
In 2015, ‘IS’, the Pentagon jihad brigade, stood outside Damascus. With the help of the Russian Air Force, the Syrian army heroically fought back the satanic filth. Today, with ‘HTS’, the CIA puppets of Al-Qaeda are now in Damascus. This result makes me wonder why Russia went to Syria in the first place, spent millions of roubles and yet achieved nothing. In view of Putin’s apparent indecision and his almost touching endeavours to negotiate and achieve agreements with the mortal enemies of his people, the next possible defeats already appear on the horizon. With Georgia, Kazakhstan and Armenia (already being a fundamental defeat for Putin, too!), the scenes have already been set and the audience, the Western warlords, are already lounging with popcorn in the front row. Iran is being isolated. And the bloodthirsty, war-mongering Zionist brigade of the coming US administration will certainly want to see nothing else other than missile fireworks in Tehran.
The development clearly contradicts Russia’s fundamental interests. If things go on like this, Russia could end up standing naked in front of the wall and, as Paul Craig Roberts has repeatedly emphasised, has only two options left: Surrender or nuclear war. Who (apart from the psychopaths in the West) could want that? So the question is not really whether Putin can think strategically. Well, maybe he can. The question is: for whom?
Stefan H. Heuer, M.A.
historian, born in 1964, has worked as a lecturer in adult education and, among others,
in Human resources development for a US-American company in Germany.
All Syria Needed was its Allies Supporting it Not Supporting its Enemies | Patreon
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“If Assad declines to cut a deal with Turkey, then Russia might punish him by not letting him live out the rest of his days in Moscow if he’s overthrown, let alone evacuate him if the need arises.”
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Fk Putin
Sir, you are an idiot; this is why it is that I followed syria and ukraine for 15 years. Russia and China are at war with the US; war crimes initiated by the US and europe; see; Germany Never De-nazified. Lyle Courtsal http://www.3mpub.com What’s really great is that now WE CAN PROVE that Assad DID NOT DO the 2011 Syrian Gas Attacks. And I am sorry if actually you are NOT an idiot. . . .
Sir, you are NOT an idiot. In fact, your analysis, grim as it is, coincides closely with my own, having observed Syria’s valiant resistance since November 2011. At every point it seems Vladimir Vladimirovich’s messianic tendencies impel him to tread the wire, balance pole swinging hither and yon, drawing the cheers of the crowd, but never proceeding to cross the abyss. He just pirouettes.
As to the separatist states of Novorossiya, reflect that Russian unpreparedness was never an excuse. The drunken Nazi rabble of the Ukrainian Army was thoroughly thrashed — TWICE — in 2014, by the brave militias of Donetsk and Lugansk, the last debacle being its surroundment at the Debaltsevo Cauldron. Even the slightest Russian reinforcement could have demolished this junk army of Banderists.
And Putin’s devious moves of late raise suspicions he has Bashar in an apartment in Moscow, not to protect him from head-choppers, but to prevent Bashar from speaking freely of how his great protector sold him out. Bashar may have made his own mistakes — or are these whispers a screen, from both Russia and Iran, to paper over the indisputable fact that Syria could have gotten rid of the entire rabble in 2018, but were prevented, and the fact of these same actors pressuring Assad to speak to the beast Erdogan, with a view to surrender?
Thanks for your comment.
1. You say, Germany had never been denacified. My grandpa, from my mother’s side, had been jailed in Buchenwald concentration camp between 1936-1945. He was not there because the place was lovely, but of his refusal to be complicit with the government. I therefor could care less about such claims. The german people is colonised and ripped off its basic rights by the occupants who are here since the last year of that war. Please put all complaints about denacification on them.
2. You say that you follow the events in Donbas which, after secession, is no longer part of Ukraine since 2014. It does not make any sense to speak of “Ukraine” if we mean the Donetsk People’s Republic and the Luhansk People’s Republic (the Donbas republics).
3. I fully agree to your point that there IS a war of the satanic cabal, via its proxies (ie. the western nations and their institutions), using all means and methods of war, plunder, terror, sanctions, bullying and propaganda to achieve its goal. That is not a new situation but well known since the earliest days of mankind creating “states”. The methods of the USA, as this is an uncivilised, barbaric nation (by design and right from the start, just ask the natives of the North American territorries), are less subtle than those of the British colonialist had been, hence they make more noise. IF, as you claim, there was a war of the west with Russia and China, well my argument given in my article to me appears even much more correct. IF this war was against Russia and China, why are both nations complicit with the UNO agenda 2030 and strictly (absolutly violent in case of China) followed the WHO-orders on the fake “pandemic”? Infact I would claim that there is an unversial war of the cabal against humanity, with the elite of the West, Russia and China complicit to these aims. I do claim that Putin is NOT a war president but a guy who flipflops aound the unavoidable, making “deals” with his “western partners” who publically (sic!) claim to want to destroy Russia. If bullies appeared at my place, threatening to kill me and my family, I would not sit and make deals with them. I’d grab everything appropriate to defend myself, my family and my home. In my understanding, Putin effectivly does the opposite. Incase you mistrust me, ask Igor Strelkov – after he will be released from the Gulag in 2028. The last of Putin’s surrenders in a row is Syria, with a result for the syrian people which maybe Arabi Souri could describe more accuratly.
4. The war ‘in Ukraine’ is still on territories that do not belong to Ukraine anymore – with the exception of Charkov and Sumi, where Russia successfully created a pocket (buffer zone) to prevent the AFU to attac Russian soil – whilst ukrainain, polish and other mercenaries are INSIDE Russia (Kursk), killing Russians, destroying homes, raping, plundering… well all of that sort we know from our moderate “syrian” rebels. How can Russia accept being humiliated this way? How can the leadership of a nation accept that their people are being killed by alien invaders, and the allegedly best army in the world seems incapable to just finally crush them, or even take out their supply? Just asking…
5. We can now prove it was not Assad gassing his people… this has been done long time ago already, and those who still stick to the lies on Syria will never fall from that rotten tree.
6. Wether or not you regard me as an idiot does not bother me. That is fully your right to express yourself. Thank you.
Germany never denazifying is because Dulles rat-lined key Nazis to head NATO, EU, UN, & to found the Munich Security Conference. https://syrianews.cc/ukraine-nato-junta-to-don-swastikas-in-support-of-nazimaidans/
Nazi officer who founded MSC: Ewald von Kleist joined the Nazi military at the age of 18. He became an officer in the Nazi military. He fought the anti-Nazi USSR on the Russian frontline. NATO-affiliated The Guardian‘s obituary did its best to avoid the term, Nazi, instead, choosing to bloviate about “passive resistance” and “reluctantly serving in the Wehrmacht…” and ending by calling this Nazi an “army officer.”
https://syrianews.cc/navalny-dies-and-nato-nazi-war-pimps-around-the-world-mourn/
@Ron Chandler: Thank you for your comment.
1. I highly appreciate your information about the Donbas milicia, made from scratch by “Strelkov” (Igor Girkin), “Givi”, “Motorola” and other heroes whom we shall not forget. It is true, as you stated, that this milicia was capable to successfully confront the Ukrainian army (AFU), leading to the humiliating debacles of 2014/2015. The defection of conscripted personell from the frontline was a clear sign that there still were men in the AFU who did not want to kill fellow human beings in the name of the regime in Kiev.
2. This was when Mrs. Merkel (zionist pawn) came in, went to the Kremlin and dealt with Putin (zionist pawn), in absence of the Donbas-governments (russian nationals, no zionist pawns), the “Minsk Agreements”. I fully agree to your analysis of the chances that had been thrown away by Putin / Lavrov. The term “unpreparedness”, however, was given by Paul Craig Robert. I agree that – to some extend – it could paint an incorrect picture. Maybe we finally should start to name Putin’s actions s what, in the end, the outcome, they are: treason.
3. “[…] he has Bashar in an apartment in Moscow, not to protect him from head-choppers, but to prevent Bashar from speaking freely of how his great protector sold him out.” I fear this could be the real motive for securing Mr. Assad and his family – and not “humanitarian reason” as Putin claimed, when millions of Syrians, undefended, were handed to the headchoppers by Russia (and the traitors inside Syria). Where was his humanitarian reason in that case of a nation falling into the abbyss of wahhabi lunacy? As far as I could find out, with the exception of 1 young lady who had been forced to flee, her family in Aleppo, that is all my friends in Syria, are dead by now, after they had been standing by their nation in that war waged on Syria by the west and the wahhabi gangs of al Saud etc. for 13 years. I will not bother you describing my feelings when I read statements by Putin now. I understand and accept he has to defend his cause, and his argument – to me – is cheap, weak and not at all convincing. All the Astana talk, the UNO Geneva talk, all the agreeents with the enemies of Syria had been driven by Putin (mind: I make a big difference between Putin and Russia. Russia is a nation of great, warmhearted people). The Idlib desaster could have been prevented, or, at least, finally ended at least in 2020-24. Syria was prevented from crushing terrorists but infact was urged to pamper them. Arabi Souri recently said that he, answering the Putin-parroting people, asks: where were the S-300 for Syria, Turkey received S-400. That question to me sums it up. Still, as an academic, an analyst, I feel obliged to see all sides and refrain from emotionally driven judgement – accepting the chance that, as a human being, I could fail.
Best regards.
@carinaragno: Thank you very much for the info and the links. This, I admit, completes the picture. Highly appreciated! Best regards.
Thank you, Stefan.
The proverbial writing was actually on the wall in early 2016, but I had hoped Putin later decided to grow into the shoes of leadership made for him.
This “Geopolitical Confabulation in the Ides of March” report caused SN to be shunned by western friends of Syria, from the day it was published: https://syrianews.cc/geopolitical-confabulation-ides-march/
President Assad repeatedly stated there could be no meeting with Erdogan until after Turkey withdrew its [war criminal] troops from Syria: https://syrianews.cc/assad-no-meeting-with-erdogan-without-turkish-withdrawal-from-syria/
The proverbial writing was on the wall by early 2016 though I’d hoped Putin would rise to the occasion of unprecedented leadership; ‘western friends of Syria’ pitchforks came out after us, upon publication of “Geopolitical Confabulation in the Ides of March”: https://syrianews.cc/geopolitical-confabulation-ides-march/
Thank you, Stefan…though I believe Venezuela is next, given the recent arrests of NATO mercs, there, & Edmundo “Charlie McCarthy” González being carried from ‘sanctuary’ in Spain, to Brazil, Argentina, & DC.
https://x.com/miriwood/status/1876921877391704474
Recently spoke with people near the shuttered refinery formerly known as HOVENSA, & there is ‘activity’ there unreported in local news.
“Ajax II.”
@Miri: A big Thank You for throwing the Venezuela topic into the pool. Will Iran or Venezuela be next? Of course, we do not know (I do not receive phonecalls from The White House) and only can draw conclusions. I agree that Venezuela (especially for incoming orange man) seems to have a fascination on her own (i.e. the oil and the profits the USA would potentially gain from a renewed “Monroe Doctrin”) and could hence be ‘handled’ first. I am a bit too far away from knowledge about South America and, therefor, happy that you are spot on on this, too. Kind regards.
Stefan, yes, our Ajax II on Venezuela is ongoing & simpler regarding the proximity (& possibly also PEOTUS Trump’s threats against Panama, & the US bought the Virgin Islands basically as a military base, which they’ve pretty much remained.
Post coup in Iran, it will be happy to fall on the sword for US/NATO sovereignty destruction.
@Miri: I do like Trump as much as I would ‘like’ a crocodile waiting at my bathroom. From my articles dating back 2016-18, you know that. But I have to acknowledge: putting aside International Law, national sovereignity and grabbing Panama was an excellent move a) to secure the use for US-ships and b) to prevent China to to the same. Trump is not at all an isolationist in some fairy tale tradition of his party, but an imperialist of superior class, i.e. of ruthless brutality. The more I have to realise the current situation, the more I understand the urgent need for nations like Iran, DPRG, Venezuela, Yemen and others to NOT align with Russia (and China) and especially to NOT trust them for coming for your rescure. Syria should teach a warning. Remember that in my articke I wrote that – maybe – some nations could learn from that as to take from Moscow what they can get but still not aligning with the Kremlin that far as to become fatally dependend in the sphere of national interest. Anyway, sooner or later we will see wether or not the Syrian calamity would repeat (with Iran or any other country on the Hit-List of the Evil Empire) or other nations possibly affected from an imperalistic aggression by the US (and that could be EVERY nation, except the US). A common defense strategy of the small – non-aligned – nations should be an idea to be developed at high speed, if mutual understanding and the will to cooperate rises above idiocracy, personal interests and short-sighted tactics.
1942-45 vs. 2022-25 – mind the difference!
Within the 3 years war, Putin has still not even liberated the Donbass from the AFU (ukrainian army), while in Kursk region – Russia – ukrainian banderites together with polish terrorists are killing Russian civilians, US-made cruise missiles are raining on Russia and Ukraine is able to send drones far into the Russian lands behind the frontline. Within the very same timeline, 3 years, Stalin and the Red Army swept the whole Wehrmacht right from the Volga river back to the german heartland, with Red Army standing at the German border in Eastern Prussia in january 1945, 3 years after Stalingrad. Putin is a complete failure. And his deeds do serve the enemies.
Update: Nobody could have guessed that!
https://english.almayadeen.net/news/politics/damascus-authorities-terminates-russian-contract-for-tartus
https://www.newsweek.com/syria-deals-blow-putins-fleet-mediterranean-tartus-contract-ended-port-2018710
Wasn’t that foreseeable? Who predicted it?
What did the Russian soldiers in Syria fall for?
What brain acrobatics will our dear Putin admirers now use to gloss over this loss too?
We can feel vindicated if what has been obvious and what has only been denied, sometimes in an insultingly aggressive manner, comes true. The hope is that these miserable figures who always defend Putin, regardless which horrible losses he produces for Russia (not for himself), will now at least keep their mouths shut for a while – or take their fingers off the keyboards.
Perhaps the Russians will finally wake up and realize that the gentleman in the Kremlin (like EVERY politician!) is serving foreign interests and selling Russia down the river.
Stefan
Update Jan.29, 2025:
Today we were able to read in the press about a massive drone attack by Ukraine (or its owners) on cities and critical supply infrastructure in Russia: „Russia’s nuclear power plant, oil depot targeted in Ukrainian drone attack.“
https://www.presstv.ir/Detail/2025/01/29/741812/Russia-largest-nuclear-power-plant-Smolensk-Ukrainian-drone-attack
Ukraine, as Russia and its Western propagandists like to tell us, is just one step away from total defeat, possibly even its end. The continued drone attacks by this Ukraine are now more than just a nuisance. They show that Russia is apparently unable or unwilling to effectively defend itself against attacks by the united anti-Russian war coalition of NATO and the EU on its undisputed territory from the soil of Ukraine, which is being misused for this purpose. The criticism of militarily experienced Russians such as Igor Girkin does not seem to be quite as insubstantial as the Kremlin’s loudspeakers always claim.