In recent days, in particular only reports on the by Kerry & Putin initiated and probably soon forthcoming “International Syria conference” (Geneva II?), which will take place conspicuous timely to the presidential elections in Iran, dominate the topic of the Middle East in general.
The situation looks quite interesting for Syria: the conference shall, as it is surmised, run at the highest political level. The Americans stated towards Bashar al-Assad in an almost commanding voice the recommendation, that he should please participate at this conference, and he probably notices, what they give him for aces into his hands, and he wants to “consider” the matter.
No one will sit down with a “political corpse” on a table, and thus, Al-Manar published a report referring to the CIA (Al-Manar has certainly an entire staff of informants in Langley) whereby the CIA is quite certain that Bashar al-Assad will win the elections in 2014 and that the support for him will continue to the end of the next legislative session.
International Conference on Syria – Geneva II
Although there are already enough hints about the fact that this conference will lead to nothing tangible – but no problem, they gather up once again later. Maybe in September, after the presidential elections in Iran, and what may immediately follow the elections.
Because if one takes a look on the forthcoming presidential elections in Iran, one can not do otherwise but to notice one thing, which proves, that the Americans are preparing themselves quite thoroughly for these elections in Iran. Since 6 May, there is a large scale operation by the U.S. Navy in the Persian Gulf. It is large primarily because it is supposed to last until May 30. Content of the maneuver are exercises in the clearing of mines, land troops, the escort of civilian vessels and the ensuring the safety of tanker terminals.
The main objectives of this maneuver correspond fairly closely to what would be the possible actions of the U.S. Navy, if the situation in the Persian Gulf should somehow escalate. Iran has not only once threatened to shut down the Strait of Hormuz in case of a war, which would be, seen purely geographically, not a big challenge for the Persians.
The Strait of Hormuz is narrow enough and is well covered by the Iranian navy, air force and artillery, so one should have no doubts about the effect of what is threatened: up to 40% of global oil trade by sea go through the Strait of Hormuz. And 93% of all oil exports by the Gulf States are depend on the stability around this bottleneck. One may also add the LNG carriers of Qatar; could the Strait of Hormuz become unsafe for a passage only for a month, a price about 250 USD for a barrel of oil would become realistic.
The current maneuver is time-wise too near to the Iranian presidential elections, as if Iran would not have to worry about. Of course, in the case if it comes to a “revolution scenario”, the U.S. fleet will be allowed to discourage Iran to move the lever of Hormuz against the potential aggressors. Pardon, those good powers, which come rushing in order to help the Iranian people who are suffering under the thumb of the “Iranian regime”. The pronouncements of the command of the 5th U.S. Fleet about the fact that this maneuver has nothing to do with Iran, is far too much of the phrase rod as that one should take it in consideration as an argument.
Thereby, there are quite more credible information, although largely ignored by the media, that terrorist groups, operating within Iran – the well-known Mojahedin-e-Khalq in the first place – cooperate with the U.S. intelligence:
The extremists are sparring partners of the US fighting the «axis of evil», creating pretexts for accusing the US adversaries of involvement into terrorist activities. In January-February 2012, the United States and the European Union adopted «crippling sanctions» to make Iranian economy go down. Other countries were reluctant to join, as well as some US and European businessmen.
Like if on order, an explosion took place near the Israeli embassy in Delhi, at the very same time it was reported an explosive device was found near the embassy of Israel in Tbilisi. Iran was to blame, the sanctions were approved. The Iranian trace appears to be leading to the Mujahidin-e-Khalq Organization, which is extremely hostile to the incumbent Iranian government. The United States planned to delete it from the terrorist list. World media shied away from highlighting the issue. (Source)
Now, a similar scenario could happen. The provocations, launched by the People’s Mujahedin, could induce the U.S. allies to conduct all kinds of retaliation for any counteraction by Iran or to support such a counteraction.
The investigation (of course, led by Iran itself) into the attacks against Iranian scientists in the recent years showed that the attacks have been committed by terrorists, who operated from the territory of Azerbaijan respectively they retreated there after the committed bloodbath (hence, the whole background story about the “Mossad agents in Azerbaijan”). The most recent media result for the freedom-loving world: “Iran threatens Azerbaijan“.
It leads to a situation in which the world can be confronted with a news that Iran has completely unprovoked taken actions against one of his neighboring countries. According to the current constellation, this neighbor may be Azerbaijan.
Why Iran should do this, nobody will be interested in this question at such a moment. Why Iran should do this, nobody will be interested in this question at such a moment. As well as with the explosions in Reyhanli, perpetrated by the Turks, but Syria accused – against all common sense. The slowly completely derailing Erdogan is hardly interested in the fact that his statements contradict itself, whatever his government states as facts.
The mechanism of propagandistic indoctrination, even trained up to an automatism, and the spreading of obviously spoofed information can do wonders. It is possible to present the reaction by Iran to terrorist activities against itself as an aggression – one just stays silent about the reasons, which have forced the country to take counteractions.
At the same time, the U.S. and its followers have quite an experience in the use of force against sovereign states which isn’t approved by the UN Security Council (UNSC) or anybody else. And exactly in such a case, diplomatic countermeasures by the Chinese and / or Russian side is not enough.
In the U.S., they are not really happy with the results of Kerry’s visit to China. Xi Jinping has listened pretty chilly to all the initiatives by Kerry and has not discussed them further. Incidentally, North Korea demonstrates that it is capable to shake the condition in this region, which is of more and more strategic importance for the United States – and naive is the one, who thinks, that the North Koreans had this idea without knowing that China, at least, tolerates it or certainly has approved it.
To let pass this means to let the Chinese feel their own weakness. There is no better opportunity than for a return match now against China in Iran. Therefore one must bear in mind that China is definitely doing not less, perhaps even doing more than Russia, for the support of Syria. By the seemingly completely unmotivated escalation about the Diaoyudao / Senkaku Islands, the United States had to lead their attentions, well or badly, onto the Asia-Pacific region.
So, China has quite nonbinding demonstrated that a boost of the direct U.S.-actions against Syria can be countered easily by tensions at “the other end”, especially since Japan has not really something to oppose such games.
The Syrians understand very well that both, China and Russia, are just their allies due to their own interest. Syria and Iran are each the atria of the own defense perimeter for China, which they will maintain as long as it is possible. For Russia, with its tensions in the North Caucasus and the general trend of an activation of radical Islamism also even at the heart of the country (which is to observe), Syria is not less important as a “meat grinder” for the remote-controlled terror groups. So, China and Russia keep their position on the banks of the Euphrates for that reason.
What is left for the aggressors? The attempt to subvert the forming states block that opposes them. Iran is certainly a far more formidable enemy than Russia, but especially right now, the country is vulnerable. Iran remains vulnerable only for a very short time. The deadline for any action is set very close, but the Americans have to and they will certainly try to use it.
Before major changes occur, there are not only vibrations in the tectonics, which are able to tell something about the approaching event. Today, the same can be seen in the position about Syria and Iran: the provocations in Turkey, Israel’s attacks, the head-over-head visits of various Western leaders to Moscow – and those, which are the most likely aggressors against Iran – suggest, that perhaps even before the Iranian presidential elections, something might happen in or around Syria, what could captivate and distract the attention and power of the defenders – Iran, China, Russia – away from Syria and simultaneously away from Iran.
Iran is and remains the current overarching target, because already in July, Iran is likely to be again largely immune against corrosive attacks, and therefore, the whole hurry of the aggressors.
The power lies in the rest, as they say. Under time pressure, the aggressors will make mistakes. One just has to notice them and to use them in accordance..