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Syria: BND Predicts the Advance of the Syrian Army

Syrian Arab Army

The following text is a translation of an article in the German political magazine Spiegel Online about the situation in Syria. The text of the failing journalists shows on the one hand clearly the propaganda in Germany, on the other hand, it must be strange that everything suddenly looks different in Syria – even for the German foreign intelligence service.

While one who knows Syria very well just thinks “really??”, it is almost very funny how these biased media still tries to maintain the propaganda and false reporting – the same applies for the German government. While they have to admit, that the BND failed in the appraisal of the situation in Syria for a year, at least. This is very strange, isn’t it?

Such a high intelligence service has simply failed for a year, and now, it is a complete turnaround of the situation in Syria? Propaganda, baby, propaganda. The truth will prevail, it is just about the time, when the truth becomes public. The following is the translation of the short article by the German journalist about the real situation in Syria and “the fail” of the German foreign intelligence service.

Spiegel Online – BND predicts the advance of the Syrian Army

The German foreign intelligence service (short: BND / Bundesnachrichtendienst) has radically revised its assessment of the situation in Syria. The German foreign intelligence service (BND) has still predicted a quick end of the Assad regime in 2012. The new analysis: the state’s military is stronger than ever, while the rebel movement is frayed.

Berlin – The foreign intelligence service BND has fundamentally revised its operational picture of the civil war in Syria. According to information obtained by SPIEGEL ONLINE, the chief of the secret service has informed selected security policymakers in a secret meeting that the military of the ruler Bashar al-Assad is currently able to act so solid (stable) than it could not be seen for a long time. Even successful offensives against the rebel units by the Assad troops are possible at any time, so the head of the BND, Gerhard Schindler.

The new assessment of the situation of the BND is a remarkable turnaround:

Still in late summer 2012, Schindler had predicted the end of Assad in the first months of the year 2013 in briefings for members of the government and members of the parliament but also in interviews

At that time, the BND has argued with the precarious supply situation of the Assad mililtary, and they also registered a very high number of deserters up to the high officer ranks. Consequently, the BND prophesied the “end phase of the regime.”

Today, the situation is different in the view of the German Federal Intelligence Service. The BND chief explained on the basis of graphs and maps, that the troops of Assad currently have regained their fully functional supply routes for weapons. Even the occasional tough situation with the supply of fuel for the tanks and the air force of the regime is again in full action. So, the Assad army is able to fend spontaneous rebel attacks and to even regain lost ground. While Assad has less chances of defeating the insurgents, but he can be able to keep them at bay, so the BND.

BND sees situation of the rebels as bleak

The statements of the intelligence chiefs are consistent with the few reports from Syria:

– Therefore, the Syrian regime has managed in recent weeks to again secure the heartland of its power – the region of Damascus to Homs till the coast.

– The Assad troops were also able to displace the rebels from several suburbs of Damascus and they managed to cut off their supply route to the south.

– Currently, the regime also cuts off the insurgents from the supply routes to the West.

The BND sees the situation of the rebels as pretty bleak, while among the insurgents, there are also several groups of Islamist militants with links to the terrorist network al-Qaeda. Schindler reported that the rebels would wear out in power struggles for dominance in some areas. In addition, the regime troops have meanwhile almost cut off all functioning supply routes for the weapons and the transport of injured rebel fighters.

Therefore, the BND sees the predictions for the Assad regime quite positive at once. Will the conflict continue as in recent weeks, so BND chief Schindler, then the troops, backed by the Lebanese Hezbollah militia, could be able to recapture the entire south of the country by the end of 2013. The last refuge of the insurgents would only be the north. There, Kurdish rebels have their lands firmly in hand.

Syrian Arab Army
Syrian Arab Army

The statements by Schindler about the structure of the rebels leave little hope for serious negotiations between the opposition and Assad’s government. Thus, there is no functioning chain of command between the appointed leaders of the opposition abroad and the militias in Syria. The fighters (in Syria) simply do not recognize the political leadership, according to the German foreign intelligence service (BND).

The United Nations are currently trying hard to get the two sides at a table in a non-scheduled peace conference in Geneva. The German foreign minister Guido Westerwelle will again travel for the planning to the Middle East on Wednesday.

At a meeting of the “Friends of Syria”, Westerwelle wants to speak, among others, with the U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry in the Jordanian capital Amman. At the weekend, Westerwelle had again dampened the hopes for a quick success. So far, it is not even really clear whether the Assad-regime is ready for negotiations.

Source of the translated text:

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